![]() ![]() The physics of interplanetary space, through which many major storms propagate, is very different from the physics of the ionosphere where most of the impacts are felt. ![]() The vast space that encompasses space weather and the scarcity of observations further exacerbates the situation and make each observation even more valuable. The diversity and spatial scale of the space weather system is such that no single observation can capture the salient features. Thus the customer is observing impacts at the same time that the operational forecast center is seeing the event unfold. For example, the degradation of the High Frequency Radio communications between the ground and commercial airlines is nearly instantaneous when a solar flare occurs. While terrestrial weather occurs on timescales of minutes to hours, space weather storms evolve on timescales of seconds to minutes. Space weather events evolve more quickly than terrestrial weather events. Space weather operations presents unique challenges for data systems and providers. Near Real Time Data for Operational Space Weather Forecasting Rank histograms and comparison of MRMSE, mean CRPS, mean CRPS reliability and RMSE indicated that the ensemble spread is generally a reliable representation of the forecast uncertainty for short lead times but underestimates the uncertainty for long lead times. The NSE values for evaluation periods ranged between 0.96 (1 day lead time, whole study area) and 0.42 (5 days lead time, smallest command area). The mean forecast was evaluated using root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) and bias. The predictive performance for the ensemble spread of irrigation demand was quantified using rank histograms, the mean continuous rank probability score (CRPS), the mean CRPS reliability and the temporal mean of the ensemble root mean squared error (MRMSE). These inputs are variously derived from flow observations from a modernized irrigation delivery system short-term weather forecasts derived from numerical weather prediction models and observed weather data available from automatic weather stations. Forecast inputs include past flow, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration. The ensemble forecasts are based on a deterministic time series model coupled with ensemble representations of the various inputs to that model. This paper develops a method for real-time ensemble forecasting of irrigation demand and applies it to irrigation command areas of various sizes for lead times of 1 to 5 days. Irrigation demands fluctuate in response to weather variations and a range of irrigation management decisions, which creates challenges for water supply system operators. Users can easily search, retrieve and plot past simulation results (3D visualization data and numerical data) by usingĮnsemble forecasting of short-term system scale irrigation demands using real-time flow data and numerical weather predictions Numerical data are saved in the HDF5 format data files every 1 minute. ![]() For the present study, we developed a 3-D viewer application working on Internet Explorer browser (ActiveX) is implemented, which was developed on the AVS/Express. The 3-D visualization results of simulation results are updated every 20 minutes in the following three formats: (1)Streamlines of magnetic field lines, (2)Isosurface of temperature in the magnetosphere and (3)Isoline of conductivity and orthogonal plane of potential in the ionosphere. In the present study, we develop a real-time 3D webcite for the global MHD simulations. However, 3D visualization of simulation results is indispensable to forecast space weather more accurately. Simulation results (2-D plots) are updated every 1 minute on a NICT website. The real-time solar wind parameters from the ACE spacecraft at every one minute are adopted as boundary conditions for the simulation. For the necessity of space weather forecasting, NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has developed a real-time global MHD simulation system of solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere couplings, which has been performed on a super-computer SX-6. Owing to the recent remarkable progresses of super-computer technologies, numerical simulations have become powerful research methods in the solar-terrestrial physics. It is important to forecast the geo-space EM environment as well as the ground weather forecasting. They occasionally cause various troubles or damages, such as electrification and interference, to the spacecraft. The electromagnetic (EM) environments around the spacecraft are always influenced by the solar wind blowing from the Sun and induced electromagnetic fields. Recently, many satellites for communication networks and scientific observation are launched in the vicinity of the Earth (geo-space). A Real-time 3D Visualization of Global MHD Simulation for Space Weather Forecasting ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |